Nord Stream 2, According to the latest data released by the Russian energy giant Gazprom on Monday, from January 1 to October 15 this year, Gazprom natural gas exports increased by 13.1% year-year, Reaching 152.2 billion cubic meters.
Without Nord Stream 2 effect, Data show that Gazprom output during the same period also increased by 16.6% to 399.4 billion cubic meters.
From the beginning of January to October 15, Gazprom exports to Romania increased significantly by 288.6%, and exports to Turkey increased by 125.3%. Exports to other EU member increased by 112.1% to Serbia, 52.7% to Bulgaria, 28.2% to Germany, 16.3% to Italy, 15.3% to Finland, 12.9% to Greece and 10% to Poland.
Oil and gas exports account for about 40% of the Russian Federal budget.
The Natural Gas Price and Nord Stream 2
Russia hinted that it will not do its utmost to provide Europe with additional natural gas to alleviate the current energy crisis, unless Russia gets something in return: the regulator approves the delivery of natural gas through the Nord Stream 2 pipeline.
The report stated that Russia wants everyone to know that in exchange for an increase in natural gas supply, Europe has to exchange with Russia Nord Stream 2 gets Approved by Germany and the European Union.
Last week, Russian President Putin said at an energy conference that Russia can provide more natural gas, but he also regretted the slow progress of the Nord Stream 2 project approval: “If we can increase (natural gas) delivery through Nord Stream 2 route This will greatly ease the tension in the European energy market. However, due to administrative obstacles, we are currently unable to achieve this.”
The pro-Russian government member of the upper house KoNstantin Kosachyov recently stated, “We can’t just go to the rescue and make up for mistakes that were not made by us. We are fulfilling all contracts and all obligations. Everything else should be voluntary or reciprocal.”
Nord Stream 2 travels from Vyborg in Russia through the Baltic Sea, Ukraine and Poland to Lubmin in Germany, with a total length of 1,200 kilometers. This natural gas pipeline has been completed, but it is still waiting for regulatory approval before it can begin to provide 55 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe each year.
On Monday, the Nord Stream 2 pipeline stated that its first production line could be ready to start operations, but it could not be transported until the approval of the regulatory authorities was obtained. “Nord Stream 2 chessboard ?! “
A few hours before Nord Stream 2 announcement, it was reported that Gazprom had once again bid for only a small amount of capacity, restricting the supply of natural gas to Europe via other routes, which caused the price of natural gas to soar again that day.
According to data from the Oxford Energy Institute, although Russia exports to Europe this year have increased from last year’s lowest level, they still lag behind the level of 2019. In October, the daily delivery volume decreased, and Gazprom storage facilities in Europe were slow to replenish goods, which added upward pressure on prices.
At present, the price of natural gas in Europe is more than five times higher than that of a year ago, and the soaring fuel cost is having an increasingly serious negative impact on the European economy. If energy prices do not plummet, or do not plummet quickly, Europe will face increasing pressure to find natural gas at all costs.
On the Russian side, as long as it abides by the contract, if it is willing to give up the marginal profit of additional natural gas exports, it is entirely up to it.
Russian natural gas is seen as the main way for Europe to avoid more severe supply shortages during the winter. European mainstream public opinion attributed the lack of gas to Russia as the cause, believing that this year’s gas shortage in Europe was mainly “intentional” by Russia, and they have called for Russia to increase the sale of natural gas. “Nord Stream 2” involved now.
Russia blamed the European energy crisis on its hasty shift to relying on the spot market and new energy sources.
From the current point of view, the approval of Nord Stream 2 project will continue until next year. The German regulatory agency is currently reviewing the certification application for this project, but said that their preliminary decision can only be made in January, after which it needs to be approved by the European Commission.
Although Gustav Gressel, a senior policy researcher at the European Commission on Foreign Relations, said that it is only a matter of time before the German energy regulator approves the plan, analysts said that this is not an easy task. Important obstacles include the following:
1. The United States has always opposed Nord Stream 2 pipeline, saying it has increased Europe dependence on Russian energy.
2. Poland and Ukraine opposed the pipeline on the grounds of energy security. They worry that Nord Stream 2 pipeline may reduce the flow of natural gas sent to Europe via the Ukrainian pipeline.
3. Critics believe that Nord Stream 2 pipeline does not meet Europe climate goals and is likely to increase Russian President Putin economic and political influence in the region.
European natural gas prices fell by about 10% compared to the previous day, but they remained high. When the London Stock Exchange ICE opened, the price of natural gas in Europe fell to approximately US$980 per thousand cubic meters, and the November natural gas futures price at the Dutch TTF hub fell to US$983.5 per thousand cubic meters.
Russian media said that Russia has repeatedly asked Europe to open the newly built “Nord Stream 2” natural gas project as soon as possible to increase gas supply to Europe, but the EU has not given a clear answer.
The Russian “Izvestia” report on the 18th quoted Russian Deputy Prime Minister Novak as saying that the “Nord Stream 2″ natural gas pipeline will be ready to start in the next few days. Time.” Deputy Director of the Russian National Energy Research Institute Frolov said that the launch of this pipeline can accelerate the stability of the European natural gas market.
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The operator of the “Nord Stream 2” project announced on the official website on the 18th that the filling procedure for the first natural gas pipeline has been completed. According to planning and design requirements, approximately 177 million cubic meters of reserve natural gas is sufficient to meet future needs.
According to Russian media, the construction of the “Nord Stream 2” natural gas pipeline was completed on September 10, and the operator is processing qualification documents. The procedure is divided into two stages. The draft decision of the German regulatory agency to certify natural gas pipeline operators will be evaluated by the European Commission.
The German Federal Network Agency has received the documents last month. The Russian “Viewpoint” quoted the Russian ambassador to the United Kingdom on the 18th as saying that Russia gas transportation system to Europe through Ukraine has reached the upper limit. Nord Stream 2 pipeline has not been modernized and is very dangerous.
The German “Business Daily” believes that the soaring natural gas price not only allows Russia to obtain high profits from energy exports, but also gains the initiative in the dispute with EU countries on the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline project.
German TV 1 reported on the 18th that the German Federal Network Agency plans to certify the Nord Stream 2 pipeline in early January next year. The security of supply in Germany and Europe must be excluded from Nord Stream 2 pipeline threats. The other two major obstacles are EU laws and the German election.
The attitude of post Greens. German media said that in the transitional period of energy transition, in addition to green electricity, it still depends on natural gas. The pipeline plans to transport more than 5 billion cubic meters of natural gas to Europe this year, which will meet the needs of 26 million households in Germany in the future, and Russia will double its natural gas supply to Germany.
Russia has problems with natural gas exports, natural gas futures skyrocketed again “Nord Stream 2”
According to sources, despite the previous statement by Russian President Putin, he is prepared to increase supply. But the results of the pipeline capacity auction in November did not indicate that Russia plans to increase exports to Europe. Russia has repeatedly emphasized that it must first fill up domestic stocks before increasing exports. Stimulated by this news, European natural gas prices skyrocketed again.
The wholesale price of natural gas delivered in the first quarter of 2022 in the United Kingdom once soared 9.5%; European natural gas futures once soared 13%.
According to sources, despite Putin’s insistence last week that the country is “prepared to discuss any additional measures” to stabilize the energy market, the supply ceiling still exists. The soaring energy costs have driven everything from chemical giant BASF SE to fertilizer producer Yara International ASA and CF Industries Holdings Inc. The company cut production. Russian gas is seen as the only way to avoid a more severe supply contraction in the middle of the winter.
In a series of auctions on Monday, Gazprom chose not to reserve additional gas space for the main transport route through Ukraine next month.
The company did not reserve any of the 9.8 million cubic meters of pipeline capacity provided by Sudzha per day. , Nor did it book the 5.2 million cubic meters of pipelines provided by Sokhranovka per day. Both of these points are located on the border between Russia and Ukraine.
The company will continue to send limited quantities of goods to Germany only through Poland. Traders only booked 35% of the natural gas capacity provided at the Mallnow compressor station at the end of the Yamal-Europe pipeline in Russia in November. This is similar to this month’s level.
Although Gazprom still has the option to book capacity every day in November, it has not done so this month. Russia has repeatedly stated that it needs to fill up domestic storage sites before promoting exports.
In addition, preliminary operating data released by the company shows that so far this month, the company has exported an average of 427 million cubic meters of natural gas per day to major markets such as Europe, Turkey and China. According to Bloomberg’s calculations based on these data, the daily transaction volume is about 12% lower than the previous months average.
Gazprom continues to increase its total natural gas production to meet higher domestic demand, with an average output of 1.42 billion cubic meters so far in October. According to calculations, this is an increase of nearly 5% over the same period last year and 4% higher than the September average.
Europe started the heating season with the lowest natural gas inventory in more than a decade, raising concerns about the reliability of winter supply. Last week, storage locations switched to net withdrawals, but this week’s mild temperatures gave people some respite, and inventories rose again slightly.
Goldman Sachs Group analysts said in a report that the disappointing results of the Yamal pipeline auction may require European natural gas prices to rise high enough to generate sufficient demand disruption to compensate for the decline in Russian pipeline flow.
After the announcement of the above news, the European natural gas futures of the Dutch property rights transfer facility center rose by 15% after falling 8.3% on Friday. The wholesale price of natural gas delivered in the first quarter of 2022 in the United Kingdom once soared 9.5% European natural gas futures once soared 13%.
What is the reason for Russian natural gas supply problems?
At the same time as natural gas prices soared, there was another news. According to comprehensive foreign media reports, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated that Russia will suspend the work of its NATO office and the activities of the NATO Military Liaison Office in Moscow from November 1. Lavrov pointed out that this is a response to NATO decision to expel the eight permanent representatives of Russia to NATO.
Oil and gas revenues in the Russian budget in 2021 may reach 125 billion USD.
Russian News reported on October 12 that Malinchenko, senior manager of the Natural Resources and Raw Material Commodities Group of Fitch Ratings Agency, said that based on the average price of Brent crude oil in 2021 (US$70/barrel) and the average export price of Gazprom’s natural gas ( 320 U.S. dollars per thousand cubic meters), Russia annual budget for oil and gas revenue may reach 9 trillion rubles (about 125 billion U.S. dollars), which is 50 billion USD more than in 2020.
Russia Nord Stream 2 bypasses Ukraine, and countries compete for energy rights
On October 1, the 15-year natural gas supply agreement signed between Gazprom and the Hungarian government came into effect. Russia will deliver natural gas to Hungary through the “Turkish Creek” natural gas pipeline and the gas pipeline in southeastern Europe. This confirms Observation 1’s point of view that after crossing the Baltic Sea to Germany Nord Stream 2 pipeline, Russia’s route to Turkey gas transmission agreement once again bypassed Ukraine.
The Ukrainian government immediately strongly condemned it as a threat to its national security, saying that Hungary’s signing of the agreement was a “politically and economically unreasonable decision”.
Why does Russia Nord Stream 2 bypass Ukraine?
Russia has a vast land and rich natural resources. The reserves of energy such as oil and natural gas are among the highest in the world, and it has always been a major energy exporter.
Based on this, on the one hand, Russia can increase fiscal revenue and stabilize the domestic economic situation, on the other hand, it can also increase its influence on consumer countries, using energy as an important weight in diplomatic negotiations and participating in international affairs.
Although Russia’s energy strength is very strong in terms of reserves and exports, this does not mean that Russia has the same energy power.
Because energy power emphasizes the ability of a country to exert influence on other countries by mastering some of the energy production, flow, consumption and other links.
As one of the important commodities in cross-border trade, energy production and consumption are separated, which will inevitably make it vulnerable to the constraints of third parties during transportation.
At this time, the ability of the supplier country to realize national interests and influence other countries based on its own energy strength is bound to be distributed to third parties.
Take natural gas as an example. Europe has always been an important export market for Russia.
Since the beginning of the last century, many transnational natural gas pipelines have been built between Russia and Europe.
These pipelines continuously transport natural gas extracted from Siberia to Europe through Ukraine, Belarus, Turkey, Poland and other countries.
The transit countries of natural gas pipelines represented by Ukraine can not only receive more than one billion U.S. dollars in tolls each year, but also affect the secondary distribution of global natural gas by controlling the opening and closing of transit pipelines, thereby affecting the natural gas supplier (Russia) And natural gas consuming countries (Western European countries) have both produced strategic containment, increased their bargaining power in international affairs, and obtained certain energy power.
Before the “Orange Revolution” in Ukraine, Russia and Ukraine still maintained good-neighborly and friendly relations.
After the Ukraine crisis in 2014, Russia-Ukraine relations have deteriorated and Russia has spared no effort to weaken Ukraine’s geopolitical influence.
Although the geographic location is fixed, human intervention and influence can often break through the limitations of the original geographic space to a certain extent, shape a new geographic space, and change the geopolitical pattern.
On the one hand, Russia entered Europe through Turkey on the land, and on the other hand, it tried to build the Nord Stream 2 natural gas pipeline across the Baltic Sea and the Black Sea.
In this way, Russia has established a new natural gas transmission space between itself and natural gas consuming countries, excluding Ukraine.
Ukraine has lost its status as a transit country, and the energy rights gained therefrom no longer exist.
It can be seen that the energy power of Ukraine has gone through a process from nothing to nothing and from nothing to nothing. The “fighting” of Russia and Ukraine also reflects the high sensitivity and vulnerability of its energy power and Nord Stream 2.
On the one hand, Russia has the right to decide on the laying and use of pipelines. Once Russia changes its course, Ukraine energy power will be quickly lost, on the other hand, Ukraine economic downturn and political turmoil make it difficult to find new ones after being kicked away by Russia. Economic growth point.
This also shows that the stability of energy power in transit countries is relatively weak. Once suppliers and consumers find more favorable alternatives, the original energy power in transit countries will disappear.