The skyrocketing silicon price is undoubtedly a major focus of recent market attention! According to SMM prices, silicon prices have continued to rise in the past month. On September 2, the average spot price of SMM Tongyang Silicon (East China) was 24,350 yuan (about 3750 USD) per ton, which has increased by more than 9,000 yuan (about 1385 USD) per ton from the beginning of the month, an increase of up to 60. %.
The photovoltaic industry is welcoming both policies and demand. Since the beginning of this year, the Silicon Price materials has been rising. Silicon Price has risen from 80,000 yuan/ton (about 12307 USD) at the beginning of the year to 200,000 yuan/ton (about 30770 USD), an increase of up to 150%. Silicon Price increase has been transmitted to silicon wafers and Solar Cells.
The entire photovoltaic industry chain will be affected by wafer, module manufacturers and terminal power stations. According to industry insiders, the silicon material construction cycle is long, and the peak season for photovoltaic installations at the end of the superimposed period is coming, and the short-term silicon material price may continue to fluctuate at a high level.
In terms of supply, Yunnan’s accumulation of storage during the high-water period was not as expected. The previous deadline for electricity to start construction in Yunnan was late, combined with concerns that the production cycle would be shortened again in advance during the dry season, and the recently issued “Completion of Energy Consumption Double Control Targets for Each Region in the First Half of 2021” In the Situation Barometer, the provinces whose energy consumption intensity did not decrease but increased in the first half of the year.
Include Xinjiang and Yunnan, two major provinces that supply silicon metal, which means that the two provinces may implement stricter energy consumption dual control policies in the second half of the year, and the form of power supply It is not optimistic. The start of the silicon plant in the second half of the year may be challenged. Silicon plants are optimistic about the market outlook, and their quotations continue to rise sharply, with individual brands appearing to be much higher than mainstream quotations.
The price of silicon metal has made history one after another. For the downstream aluminum alloy enterprises, the price of aluminum and silicon is upside down, the profitability of the enterprise is difficult, the purchasing mentality is negative, and the main thing is to wait and see the market. The downstream organic silicon and polysilicon companies still have ample profit margins. In order to ensure production, the procurement speed has not slowed down. The strong demand for metal silicon is the main reason for the continuous price increase. ( read this Aug. 2021 report )
SMM believes that the downstream companies of silicon metal have not established safety stocks for more than half of the wet period, and the national energy consumption dual control policy is still not optimistic about power supply in the second half of the year, which directly affects the start of silicon metal plants, except for a small amount of qualified zombie production capacity to resume production in the second half of the year. Unplanned, the operating rate of the existing silicon metal plant cannot continue to increase.
There will be little new capacity for silicon metal in 2021, and a large number of new capacity will not be put into operation until 2022 during the high water period. The new production capacity of organic silicon monomer and polysilicon will be released in 2021Q4-2022H1. The silicon metal supply gap in the second half of 2021 will continue at least until the end of the first half of 2022 will affect Silicon Price.
Double carbon limits the Silicon Price upward terminal applications Chaoyang Development The price of silicon metal will rise centrally. SMM predicts that the price of silicon metal will continue to write a new history from September to December 2021. The price of silicon will remain high before the rainy season in June 2022. Silicon Price boom will continue until 2023.
Guojin Securities believes that under the background of limited capacity expansion, relying on the continuous growth of major demand sides such as polysilicon and organic silicon, the supply and demand gap of metal silicon is expected to exist for a long time, and the industry’s prosperity is expected to remain high.
The short-term demand side of organic silicon continues to grow and the supply side is put into production lower than expected, and the industry’s boom is continued; in the medium term, with the gradual release of new organic silicon production capacity, the boom begins to come under pressure; the long-term industry benefits from the strong drive and consumption of new energy With the continuous catalysis of upgrades, new production capacity can be better digested, and supply and demand are expected to maintain a tight balance.
From the perspective of industrial chain value affect Silicon Price, considering that China organic silicon consumption is still at a relatively low level, metallic silicon and organic silicon are the core links in the silicon industry chain. The domestic market has great growth potential. It is expected that the scale of the metallic silicon market will be close to 2023. 50 billion (calculated at 20,000 yuan/ton), and the organic silicon market is above 80 billion (calculated at 25,000 yuan/ton).