The global Covid pandemic has lasted for nearly two years. Globally, more than 2.4 billion people were infected and 4.9 million died of coronavirus.
But in the past month or so, the global Covid epidemic has slowed down so, When Will Global Covid End ?
Since the end of August, the number of confirmed cases and deaths worldwide has continued to decline. As can be seen from the global Covid pandemic curve, the peak of the third wave of the epidemic has passed.
According to the latest weekly report on the epidemic released by WHO on October 19, among the six major WHO regions, except for the European region, new confirmed cases and deaths continue to decline in the remaining five regions. The data shows that compared with the peak period at the end of August, the number of new confirmed cases worldwide has decreased by 38% in the past month or more.
Since the coronavirus pandemic was declared a global Covid pandemic in March last year, the world epidemic has fluctuated several times. The first wave of global peaks occurred from the end of 2020 to the beginning of 2021, the second wave of peaks occurred in April 2021, and the third wave of peaks occurred in August 2021. It can be seen that almost every time people think that the epidemic will gradually ease, there will be a new wave of counterattacks.
But with rising vaccination rates and the long absence of new and interesting mutations in the novel coronavirus, many people are looking forward to questioning: Is the global Covid end finally coming?
Is global Covid epidemic slow down?
WHO recently pointed out that since late August, new confirmed cases and deaths around the world have shown a continuous downward trend.
According to the latest weekly report on the epidemic released by WHO on October 19, in the past week (October 11 to October 17, there have been more than 270 new confirmed cases and 4.6 thousand new deaths worldwide, down 4% and 2% respectively from the previous week.
Among them, the largest decline is in the WHO Africa region. Compared with the previous week, the number of confirmed cases and deaths in the African region showed a decrease of 18% and 25%, respectively.
Among the new confirmed cases, the Western Pacific region has decreased by 16% in the past week, the Americas region has decreased by 14%, Southeast Asia region has 13%, and the Eastern Mediterranean region has decreased by 6%. In terms of new deaths, immediately after the African region, the largest decline was in Southeast Asia, with a decrease of 19%. The Eastern Mediterranean region fell by 8%, and the Americas region and the Western Pacific region changed by the same extent as the previous week.
Edwin Michael, an epidemiologist at the Center for Global Health and Infectious Diseases at the University of South Florida, told the Beijing News that the number of new cases around the world continues to decline, mainly due to the increase in global vaccination rates, and Most countries have gained natural immunity in several waves of epidemics.
Edwin Michael said that with the increase in vaccination, the epidemic situation is changing rapidly in countries and regions where the majority of the population (more than 70%) has been vaccinated.” In these countries and regions that may be close to herd immunity – about 10% to 15% of their population may have been immunized through infection. The peak of the latest wave of the epidemic has passed and its epidemic has begun to improve.”
However, Edwin Michael pointed out that “since the epidemic will still spread among unvaccinated people (mainly children and people who refuse to be vaccinated), the decline will continue for a long time.” This also means that there is still a risk that the global Covid epidemic will rebound and global Covid end delay.
Zhang Boli, academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, also pointed out at the 2021 Doctor Cloud Conference on October 13 that the global Covid epidemic has shown an overall trend of slowing down recently, with confirmed cases falling by nearly 30% in the past month. The reasons are many, first, the vaccination is widespread, the second is that there is no new mutation of the virus, and some protective measures have been generally increased. However, Chamberlain stressed that it was too early to say that the epidemic had been brought under control until global Covid end.
Benjamin Neuman, a virologist at Texas A&M University in the United States, pointed out directly that the current global trend slowdown may not be a permanent decline, but a “relaxing alarming” Scam.
In an interview with the Beijing News, he pointed out that the world is about to have consecutive holidays such as Thanksgiving, Christmas and New Year, and there is a large number of people moving and gatherings every holiday, which may lead to a re-infection.” Since there are still some people who refuse to be vaccinated, there are new doubts about the effectiveness of the vaccine, which means that we may see new peaks in the future – for example, after holidays.
Europe may become the center of Covid?
In fact, although the global epidemic has shown an overall downward trend, the epidemic has shown an upward trend in Europe, a region that has attracted much attention.
According to the weekly epidemic report released by WHO on October 19, new confirmed cases in the European region have shown an upward trend for the third consecutive week. The report shows that there were more than 135 thousand new confirmed cases in the European region in a week, up 7% over the previous week, accounting for almost half of the new confirmed cases in the week around the world.
The European region is the only one among the six WHO regions that shows an upward trend. More than half of the countries in the region (35 out of 61) have an upward trend of new confirmed cases, with the United Kingdom, Russia and Turkey with the most new confirmed cases.
Among the new deaths, the European region has 1.1.8 thousand new deaths in a week, an increase of 4%, accounting for 39% of new deaths worldwide in the week.
Among them, Luxembourg’s new deaths increased the most, reaching 200%. Then Denmark and Slovakia, which rose by 83% and 82% respectively. Russia has the highest number of new deaths in a week, reaching 6897.
The Covid epidemic in Britain and Russia has attracted global attention about question of when will global Covid end?
The epidemic in Britain is fermenting rapidly. On October 19, there were 43738 new confirmed cases in the United Kingdom, with an increase of more than 4 million confirmed cases for the seventh consecutive day. 223 new deaths were reported on that day, the highest since March.
According to Johns Hopkins University epidemic statistics, there have been 10 thousand new confirmed cases in the United Kingdom in the past 28 days, second only to the United States, where the epidemic is the most serious. In addition, the number of coronavirus inpatients in the UK has increased by 10% in the past week. According to the BBC, as the epidemic worsens again in the UK, the Moroccan government announced that British flights will be banned from entering the country from October 20.
Deepti Gurdasani, an epidemiologist at Queen Mary University in London, told CNN that the current rebound of the epidemic in the United Kingdom is “predictable”, which is the result of Britain’s rapid opening up. She also pointed out that “winter is coming in the UK, and the epidemic will only get worse and worse”. As of October 19, the total number of confirmed cases in the United Kingdom was 858 thousand, and the total number of deaths was close to 14 thousand.
Russia is also caught in a new wave of epidemic crisis.
According to a report by TASS on October 20, Russia has 34073 new confirmed cases and 1028 new deaths in the past 24 hours – the highest number of new deaths in a single day since the outbreak of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia. As of that day, a total of 796 thousand confirmed cases and more than 22 thousand deaths in Russia.
According to TASS, Russian President Putin agreed to a proposal put forward by the government on October 20 to declare October 30 to November 7 as a non-working day to contain the current rapidly deteriorating epidemic. Areas with severe coronavirus epidemics can declare October 23 as non-working days.
Putin told the Russian people on the same day, “There are only two ways for us to survive the disease or get vaccinated. Vaccination is obviously better than waiting for the disease and its serious effects.”
Is the impact of the decline in vaccine immunity beginning to stand out? which could delay global Covid end?
The reasons for the continuous deterioration of the epidemic in Britain and Russia vary.
According to TASS analysis, the main reason for the deterioration of the coronavirus epidemic in Russia is that the vaccination rate in the country is relatively low, and people have begun to ignore some epidemic prevention and control measures. According to Our World in Data statistics, as of October 19, the proportion of people in Russia who had completed vaccination was 31%.
As one of the countries with the highest vaccination rate, the continuous rise in new confirmed cases in the UK has raised concerns about the gradual decline in the effectiveness of the coronavirus vaccine.
According to Our World in Data statistics, as of October 18, 72.51 percent of the population in the United Kingdom had been vaccinated with at least one dose of coronavirus vaccine, of which 66.56% had been vaccinated.
BBC analysis points out that the speed of vaccination in the UK has always been among the highest in the world, which may be an important reason why the number of new confirmed cases in the UK is so high. Some studies point out that the protective power of the coronavirus vaccine against infection will decline significantly after five to six months of vaccination another delay of global Covid end.
However, the study also pointed out that six months after vaccination, its protection against severe illness is still very high.
Benjamin Cowling, professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at the School of Public Health of the University of Hong Kong, told the Beijing News that the current surge in confirmed cases in the United Kingdom with high vaccination rates indicates that the efficiency of vaccines in preventing infection will be reduced, but its It is still effective in reducing the severeness of breakthrough infections.
Therefore, although the number of cases in countries and regions such as the United Kingdom has surged, the number of deaths in this epidemic is much lower than that in the previous wave good for global Covid end expectations.
Edwin Michael is also concerned about the decreasing effectiveness or decreasing effectiveness of the vaccine. He pointed out that some of the states with the highest vaccination rates in the United States also showed an upward trend in new confirmed cases, which “maybe a sign of the first post-vaccination wave in these states and a sign that the impact of breakthrough infections and reduced vaccine immunity is beginning to emerge”.
As of October 19, 56.34% of the population in the United States had completed the coronavirus vaccination. Among them, Vermont, Connecticut and other regions have the highest vaccination rates, reaching about 70%. With the overall epidemic in the United States slowing down (22% in 14 days), these states became the largest increase in new cases – including 38% in confirmed cases in Vermont and 23% in Connecticut in 14 days.
Benjamin Newman even pointed out that although everyone is using the word "fully vaccinated" now, "no one is really fully vaccinated at this stage".
He pointed out that there is evidence that one or two doses of vaccines will be less effective after six months, which means that even if the number of vaccinations increases, the vast majority of people are still likely to be infected with the novel coronavirus.” It may take a long time – or even years – to determine how many doses of vaccine are needed to reach a state of lasting immunity against the novel coronavirus.
How much impact does the global slowdown in vaccination have? Direct question which is related with global Covid end.
In this global coronavirus pandemic that has lasted for nearly two years, vaccines are undoubtedly the most important key to solving the dilemma. However, the dilemma of vaccination continues.
According to Our World in Data statistics, as of October 19, the world had been vaccinated with 67.2 billion doses, and about 47.9% of the world’s population had been vaccinated with at least one dose of coronavirus.
This is undoubtedly a positive signal. Benjamin Colin pointed out that as the vaccination rate is getting higher and higher, countries can decide when to declare the end of the epidemic and return to normal according to their own conditions.” In fact, most parts of the world have made this decision. He believes that by early 2022, very few regions around the world are still preventing and controlling the coronavirus through public health measures.
But Benjamin Colin is more worried about another problem – vaccination inequality.” Although nearly half of the world’s population is vaccinated with at least one dose of vaccine, it also means that more than half of the population has not been vaccinated. “global Covid end need more?”
Since the beginning of the coronavirus vaccination campaign, regional vaccination inequality has been a prominent problem. According to Our World in Data, the vaccination rate in middle- and high-income countries has reached 60%-70%, while that in low-income countries is only 2.8%.
WHO announced the launch of the Global Coronavirus Vaccination Strategy on October 7, hoping to vaccinate 40% of the world’s population with the coronavirus by the end of this year and 70% of the population in the middle of next year. Previously, WHO set the goal of vaccinating at least 10% of the world’s population by the end of September, but more than 50 countries and regions failed to meet this goal – the vast majority of which are countries in Africa and the Middle East, need solution to help global Covid end.
In his speech on October 7, WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said, “Without a coordinated and fair (vaccination) program, the reduction of cases in any country cannot last for a long time”, “For the safety of everyone, we must bring all countries to a high level of epidemic as soon as possible. Seedling coverage”.
In addition, the global vaccination rate is slowing down. This summer, the number of vaccine doses in a single day worldwide exceeded 4000 million doses. However, since September, the global vaccination rate has slowed down, and now the number of doses per day is 1900 million.
According to Edwin Michael’s analysis, the slowdown in vaccination in high- and middle-income countries such as the United States is mainly due to the fact that most adults who are willing to be vaccinated have completed vaccination, that there are currently mainly children under the age of 12 who have not been vaccinated, and some vaccine skeptics refuse to be vaccinated.
However, in low- and middle-income areas such as Africa, insufficient vaccine supply remains a major reason for their low vaccination rates. Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus pointed out on October 7 that there is currently enough vaccines in the world to achieve the vaccination target set by WHO, “as long as the vaccines are equitably distributed”. “global Covid end ?”
He reiterated his call on vaccine manufacturers to meet the order needs of COVAX (Coronavirus Vaccine Implementation Plan) and AVAT (African Vaccine Procurement Trust Fund) as a matter of priority, while helping all regions to enhance vaccine production capacity.
Until now no direct answer about global Covid end but data show the expectations.